A new BTC price model is being widely discussed as 2025 could be an important year in the history of Bitcoin (BTC). CryptoCon, the proponent of the price model, believes that the BTC price will experience a “mid-cycle downturn” before the upcoming bitcoin bull market at the end of 2024, revealing a new trend in the price of bitcoin.
There is an ongoing debate about the nature of the current four-year bitcoin price cycle, but CryptoCon believes it may not be as complicated as we think. He posted a chart on social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) called the “November 28th Cycle Theory,” which identifies this date as a key turning point in the year, preceded and followed by a three-week period.
CryptoCon explains, “According to my theory, the use of 4-year time cycles reveals the exact behavior of bitcoin since its inception. These cycles are centered on November 28th, the date of the first halving”.
The price of bitcoin made its first bottom on October 8, 2010, which is the top of the 4-year cycle. Both tops and bottoms occur around November 28th, +/- 21 days from this critical date. During this cycle, prices hover around the median price (half of the previous all-time high) until the curve bottoms in what CryptoCon calls a “mid-cycle slump”.
It is worth noting that the last “bull market initiation” was in 2020, when BTC/USD broke above its previous all-time high (ATH) and reached a record $69,000 a year later.
CryptoCon states, “Therefore, our focus should turn to November 2024. Until then, the BTC price will go through a period of ‘mid-cycle slump’, which is the longest part of the cycle. The bitcoin price has already reached its local high of $31,800 in July this year, so it has “almost certainly” reached its early peak.
Investors are divided on how bitcoin will perform before the 2024 bull market. Some believe that holders may only see moderate gains between now and April 2024. However, some analysts, such as Filbfilb, co-founder of DecenTrader, offer a more optimistic forecast, suggesting that the price of bitcoin could reach $46,000 by the time the bull market arrives, and $35,000 by the end of the year.
However, CryptoCon concludes that the BTC price behavior in 2023 will be a “bullish illusion,” noting that “despite what appeared to be multiple bullish signals, the price ultimately failed to sustain its rise.
All in all, 2025 will be a very interesting year for the bitcoin market, and the BTC price model has generated a lot of discussion and thought, so investors should keep a close eye on the bitcoin price to see if CryptoCon’s predictions come true.
